Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's (SHSE:605016) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals

Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605016) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.

See our latest analysis for Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech

Zooming In On Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to September 2024, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech recorded an accrual ratio of 0.26. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥65m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥234.2m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥65m, this year, indicates high risk.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's Profit Performance

Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech and you'll want to know about it.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.