Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600519) Second-Quarter Report

It's been a good week for Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.7% to CN¥1,437. Kweichow Moutai reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥36b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥14.03, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kweichow Moutai

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kweichow Moutai from 30 analysts is for revenues of CN¥174.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.5% to CN¥69.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥174.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥69.95 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥2,004, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Kweichow Moutai analyst has a price target of CN¥2,370 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥1,400. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Kweichow Moutai's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kweichow Moutai is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥2,004, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kweichow Moutai going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.