Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600199) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

One thing we could say about the analysts on Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600199) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Anhui Golden Seed Winery's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.7b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a meaningful 15% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to surge 169% to CN¥0.15. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.24 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Anhui Golden Seed Winery's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for Anhui Golden Seed Winery

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Anhui Golden Seed Winery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.7% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Anhui Golden Seed Winery is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Anhui Golden Seed Winery. There was also a drop in their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Anhui Golden Seed Winery, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.

Uncomfortably, our automated valuation tool also suggests that Anhui Golden Seed Winery stock could be overvalued following the downgrade. Shareholders could be left disappointed if these estimates play out. You can learn more about our valuation methodology for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.