First Capital Securities Co., Ltd.

XSEC:002797 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥35.8b

First Capital Securities Valuation

Is 002797 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002797 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002797 (CN¥8.52) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥0.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002797 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002797?

Key metric: As 002797 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 002797. This is calculated by dividing 002797's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 002797's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio55.6x
EarningsCN¥643.74m
Market CapCN¥35.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 002797's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 002797 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average36.6x
000783 Changjiang Securities
21.9x8.4%CN¥37.1b
600369 Southwest Securities
60.1x21.6%CN¥31.2b
600109 Sinolink Securities
23.6x9.8%CN¥32.5b
601696 BOC International (China)
40.9x14.7%CN¥30.9b
002797 First Capital Securities
55.6x7.6%CN¥35.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002797 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.6x) compared to the peer average (36.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 002797's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Capital Markets Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
002797 55.6xIndustry Avg. 32.0xNo. of Companies11PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002797 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.6x) compared to the CN Capital Markets industry average (32x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002797's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002797 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio55.6x
Fair PE Ratio28.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002797 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002797 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥8.52
CN¥4.85
-43.1%
27.8%CN¥6.19CN¥3.50n/a2
Nov ’25CN¥8.56
CN¥4.85
-43.4%
27.8%CN¥6.19CN¥3.50n/a2
Oct ’25CN¥7.10
CN¥4.85
-31.8%
27.8%CN¥6.19CN¥3.50n/a2
Sep ’25CN¥5.25
CN¥4.85
-7.7%
27.8%CN¥6.19CN¥3.50n/a2
Aug ’25CN¥5.28
CN¥5.37
+1.6%
23.3%CN¥6.31CN¥3.60n/a3
Jul ’25CN¥5.11
CN¥5.37
+5.0%
23.3%CN¥6.31CN¥3.60n/a3
Jun ’25CN¥5.40
CN¥5.37
-0.6%
23.3%CN¥6.31CN¥3.60n/a3
May ’25CN¥5.74
CN¥4.96
-13.7%
27.3%CN¥6.31CN¥3.60n/a2
Apr ’25CN¥5.50
CN¥5.40
-1.8%
23.6%CN¥6.31CN¥3.60n/a3
Mar ’25CN¥5.77
CN¥4.95
-14.3%
27.2%CN¥6.29CN¥3.60n/a2
Feb ’25CN¥5.21
CN¥5.15
-1.2%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00n/a2
Jan ’25CN¥5.81
CN¥5.15
-11.4%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00n/a2
Dec ’24CN¥6.13
CN¥5.15
-16.1%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00n/a2
Nov ’24CN¥5.84
CN¥5.15
-11.9%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00CN¥8.562
Oct ’24CN¥5.89
CN¥5.15
-12.6%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00CN¥7.102
Sep ’24CN¥6.01
CN¥5.15
-14.4%
22.3%CN¥6.29CN¥4.00CN¥5.252
Aug ’24CN¥6.42
CN¥4.37
-31.9%
35.9%CN¥5.94CN¥2.80CN¥5.282
Jul ’24CN¥5.72
CN¥4.37
-23.6%
35.9%CN¥5.94CN¥2.80CN¥5.112
Jun ’24CN¥5.85
CN¥4.47
-23.6%
32.9%CN¥5.94CN¥3.00CN¥5.402
Apr ’24CN¥5.97
CN¥4.51
-24.5%
33.5%CN¥6.02CN¥3.00CN¥5.502
Mar ’24CN¥6.04
CN¥4.51
-25.3%
33.5%CN¥6.02CN¥3.00CN¥5.772
Feb ’24CN¥6.24
CN¥4.51
-27.7%
33.5%CN¥6.02CN¥3.00CN¥5.212
Jan ’24CN¥5.63
CN¥4.51
-19.9%
33.5%CN¥6.02CN¥3.00CN¥5.812
Dec ’23CN¥5.96
CN¥4.51
-24.3%
33.5%CN¥6.02CN¥3.00CN¥6.132
Nov ’23CN¥5.68
CN¥5.01
-11.8%
20.2%CN¥6.02CN¥4.00CN¥5.842

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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