What Northeast Securities Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:000686) 40% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

The Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000686) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 40%. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 7.2% isn't as impressive.

After such a large jump in price, Northeast Securities may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 75.6x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 29x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Northeast Securities' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Northeast Securities

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Northeast Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Northeast Securities?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Northeast Securities' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 54%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 82% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 36% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Northeast Securities is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Northeast Securities' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Northeast Securities revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for Northeast Securities (3 are concerning!) that we have uncovered.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.