Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600827) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥31b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 41%, coming in at just CN¥0.22 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Shanghai Bailian (Group)

Taking into account the latest results, Shanghai Bailian (Group)'s three analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CN¥31.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 67% to CN¥0.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥33.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.46 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 26% to CN¥12.30, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Shanghai Bailian (Group), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥14.00 and the most bearish at CN¥13.60 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2024. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 11% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually. Although Shanghai Bailian (Group)'s revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Shanghai Bailian (Group)'s future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Shanghai Bailian (Group) analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Shanghai Bailian (Group) is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.