Earnings Miss: Joyoung Co.,Ltd Missed EPS By 19% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Joyoung Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002242), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥8.8b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 19%, coming in at just CN¥0.16 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JoyoungLtd's ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.21b in 2025. This reflects a modest 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 121% to CN¥0.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥9.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.51 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for JoyoungLtd

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥8.92, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on JoyoungLtd's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JoyoungLtd at CN¥11.61 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥6.10. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the JoyoungLtd's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that JoyoungLtd is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 4.1% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.1% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 8.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although JoyoungLtd's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JoyoungLtd. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for JoyoungLtd going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for JoyoungLtd that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.