Hualan Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301027) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Hualan Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301027) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Construction industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider Hualan Group as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.1x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for Hualan Group

How Has Hualan Group Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Hualan Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hualan Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Hualan Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hualan Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 48% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hualan Group is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Hualan Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

Hualan Group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Hualan Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Having said that, be aware Hualan Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.