Stock Analysis

Beijing Easpring Material Technology CO.,LTD. (SZSE:300073) Shares Could Be 47% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

SZSE:300073
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Key Insights

Does the August share price for Beijing Easpring Material Technology CO.,LTD. (SZSE:300073) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥811.0m CN¥1.15b CN¥1.41b CN¥1.65b CN¥1.86b CN¥2.05b CN¥2.20b CN¥2.34b CN¥2.47b CN¥2.58b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ 23.04% Est @ 17.00% Est @ 12.77% Est @ 9.81% Est @ 7.74% Est @ 6.28% Est @ 5.27% Est @ 4.56%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0% CN¥744 CN¥966 CN¥1.1k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.1k CN¥1.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥11b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.6b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.0%– 2.9%) = CN¥43b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥43b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)10= CN¥18b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥29b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥30.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SZSE:300073 Discounted Cash Flow August 1st 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.090. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electrical market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD, there are three additional elements you should further research:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 300073's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Beijing Easpring Material TechnologyLTD might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.