Zoje Resources Investment Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002021) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Zoje Resources Investment Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002021) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. The annual gain comes to 126% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies operating in China's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.7x, you may consider Zoje Resources Investment as a stock to potentially avoid with its 3.5x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for Zoje Resources Investment

What Does Zoje Resources Investment's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Zoje Resources Investment's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Zoje Resources Investment's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Zoje Resources Investment's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 1.0%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 18% overall rise in revenue. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 25% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Zoje Resources Investment's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Zoje Resources Investment's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Zoje Resources Investment revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Zoje Resources Investment with six simple checks.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.