Shenzhen Tagen Group (SZSE:000090) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Shenzhen Tagen Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000090) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Shenzhen Tagen Group

How Much Debt Does Shenzhen Tagen Group Carry?

As you can see below, Shenzhen Tagen Group had CN¥15.1b of debt at September 2024, down from CN¥20.2b a year prior. However, it also had CN¥9.37b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥5.74b.

How Healthy Is Shenzhen Tagen Group's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenzhen Tagen Group had liabilities of CN¥43.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥10.7b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥9.37b and CN¥19.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥25.4b.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥7.74b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Shenzhen Tagen Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Shenzhen Tagen Group has net debt to EBITDA of 4.0 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. But the high interest coverage of 7.7 suggests it can easily service that debt. Importantly, Shenzhen Tagen Group's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 55% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shenzhen Tagen Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Tagen Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 57% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

To be frank both Shenzhen Tagen Group's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Shenzhen Tagen Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Shenzhen Tagen Group .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.