A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Mengtian Home Group Inc. (SHSE:603216)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Mengtian Home Group fair value estimate is CN¥8.52
• Current share price of CN¥9.99 suggests Mengtian Home Group is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Mengtian Home Group's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -240%

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Mengtian Home Group Inc. (SHSE:603216) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Mengtian Home Group

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥141.6m	CN¥136.8m	CN¥134.8m	CN¥134.6m	CN¥135.7m	CN¥137.6m	CN¥140.2m	CN¥143.3m	CN¥146.7m	CN¥150.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -6.05%	Est @ -3.35%	Est @ -1.47%	Est @ -0.14%	Est @ 0.78%	Est @ 1.43%	Est @ 1.88%	Est @ 2.20%	Est @ 2.42%	Est @ 2.58%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	CN¥130	CN¥115	CN¥103	CN¥94.6	CN¥87.3	CN¥81.1	CN¥75.6	CN¥70.8	CN¥66.4	CN¥62.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥886m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥151m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥2.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥2.5b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= CN¥1.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥1.9b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥10.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mengtian Home Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.115. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Mengtian Home Group, there are three important aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Mengtian Home Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.