Stock Analysis

While shareholders of Bank of Ningbo (SZSE:002142) are in the red over the last three years, underlying earnings have actually grown

SZSE:002142
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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Bank of Ningbo Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002142) shareholders, since the share price is down 34% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 18%.

While the stock has risen 4.9% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

See our latest analysis for Bank of Ningbo

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Bank of Ningbo actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 11% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 12% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Bank of Ningbo further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002142 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 8th 2025

Bank of Ningbo is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Bank of Ningbo will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Bank of Ningbo the TSR over the last 3 years was -30%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Bank of Ningbo shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 0.7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bank of Ningbo better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Bank of Ningbo you should be aware of.

Of course Bank of Ningbo may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Bank of Ningbo might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.