Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited (SZSE:000625) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Chongqing Changan Automobile delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (CN¥34b) and statutory earnings per share (CN¥0.08) falling badly short of analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Chongqing Changan Automobile

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Chongqing Changan Automobile from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥215.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a sizeable 40% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 83% to CN¥0.93. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥217.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.95 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥16.94, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Chongqing Changan Automobile analyst has a price target of CN¥24.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥12.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Chongqing Changan Automobile's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 31% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Chongqing Changan Automobile to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥16.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Chongqing Changan Automobile going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Chongqing Changan Automobile (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.