Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Minera Valparaiso S.A. (SNSE:MINERA) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Minera Valparaiso
How Much Debt Does Minera Valparaiso Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2022, Minera Valparaiso had US$2.25b of debt, up from US$1.87b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$1.14b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.11b.
How Healthy Is Minera Valparaiso's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Minera Valparaiso had liabilities of US$410.5m due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.39b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.14b in cash and US$351.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.30b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$1.78b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We'd say that Minera Valparaiso's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.9), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 75.1 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, Minera Valparaiso grew its EBIT by 70% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Minera Valparaiso will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Minera Valparaiso recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 100% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Minera Valparaiso's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. But truth be told its level of total liabilities had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Minera Valparaiso is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Minera Valparaiso you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SNSE:MINERA
Minera Valparaiso
An investment company, engages in the generation and sale of electric power.
Adequate balance sheet average dividend payer.