Colbún S.A. Just Missed EPS By 58%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Colbún S.A. (SNSE:COLBUN) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$388m revenue coming in 9.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.0019 missed the mark badly, arriving some 58% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Colbún's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.77b in 2026. This would be a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 50% to US$0.018. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.017 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Colbún

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CL$163, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Colbún analyst has a price target of CL$168 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CL$155. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Colbún's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Colbún to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Colbún's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Colbún analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Colbún you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.