Colbún S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Colbún S.A. (SNSE:COLBUN), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$403m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 27% to hit US$0.0025 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Colbún from five analysts is for revenues of US$1.70b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 7.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 37% to US$0.02. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.018 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

See our latest analysis for Colbún

The consensus price target was unchanged at CL$167, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Colbún analyst has a price target of CL$179 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CL$156. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Colbún's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Colbún's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 0.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Colbún is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Colbún's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CL$167, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Colbún going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Colbún , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.