Parque Arauco S.A. Just Beat EPS By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Parque Arauco S.A. (SNSE:PARAUCO) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.4% to close at CL$1,669 following the release of its yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CL$317b were what the analysts expected, Parque Arauco surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of CL$133 per share, an impressive 32% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Parque Arauco after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Parque Arauco

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Parque Arauco from seven analysts is for revenues of CL$334.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 8.3% to CL$122 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CL$331.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CL$125 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at CL$1,875, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Parque Arauco at CL$2,100 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CL$1,673. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Parque Arauco is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Parque Arauco's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Parque Arauco.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Parque Arauco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Parque Arauco going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Parque Arauco that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.