Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Empresas CMPC S.A.'s (SNSE:CMPC) Yearly Report

It's been a good week for Empresas CMPC S.A. (SNSE:CMPC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 5.0% to CL$1,624. Revenues of US$8.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.19, missing estimates by 3.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Empresas CMPC

Following last week's earnings report, Empresas CMPC's eight analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$7.99b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 42% to US$0.11 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.98b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.17 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at CL$2,127, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Empresas CMPC analyst has a price target of CL$2,827 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CL$1,419. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Empresas CMPC is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Empresas CMPC's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CL$2,127, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Empresas CMPC going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Empresas CMPC you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.