Is Duncan Fox S.A. (SNSE:DUNCANFOX) A Smart Pick For Income Investors?

Dividend paying stocks like Duncan Fox S.A. (SNSE:DUNCANFOX) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason - some research suggests a significant amount of all stock market returns come from reinvested dividends. Unfortunately, it's common for investors to be enticed in by the seemingly attractive yield, and lose money when the company has to cut its dividend payments.

A slim 1.7% yield is hard to get excited about, but the long payment history is respectable. At the right price, or with strong growth opportunities, Duncan Fox could have potential. There are a few simple ways to reduce the risks of buying Duncan Fox for its dividend, and we'll go through these below.

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Payout ratios

Companies (usually) pay dividends out of their earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, the dividend might have to be cut. So we need to form a view on if a company's dividend is sustainable, relative to its net profit after tax. In the last year, Duncan Fox paid out 30% of its profit as dividends. This is a medium payout level that leaves enough capital in the business to fund opportunities that might arise, while also rewarding shareholders. Besides, if reinvestment opportunities dry up, the company has room to increase the dividend.

In addition to comparing dividends against profits, we should inspect whether the company generated enough cash to pay its dividend. Duncan Fox paid out 19% of its free cash flow as dividends last year, which is conservative and suggests the dividend is sustainable. It's encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don't drop precipitously.

While the above analysis focuses on dividends relative to a company's earnings, we do note Duncan Fox's strong net cash position, which will let it pay larger dividends for a time, should it choose.

We update our data on Duncan Fox every 24 hours, so you can always get our latest analysis of its financial health, here.

Dividend Volatility

Before buying a stock for its income, we want to see if the dividends have been stable in the past, and if the company has a track record of maintaining its dividend. For the purpose of this article, we only scrutinise the last decade of Duncan Fox's dividend payments. The dividend has been cut on at least one occasion historically. During the past 10-year period, the first annual payment was CL$17.7 in 2011, compared to CL$16.0 last year. This works out to be a decline of approximately 1.0% per year over that time. Duncan Fox's dividend has been cut sharply at least once, so it hasn't fallen by 1.0% every year, but this is a decent approximation of the long term change.

We struggle to make a case for buying Duncan Fox for its dividend, given that payments have shrunk over the past 10 years.

Dividend Growth Potential

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share (EPS) are growing - it's not worth taking the risk on a dividend getting cut, unless you might be rewarded with larger dividends in future. Over the past five years, it looks as though Duncan Fox's EPS have declined at around 17% a year. With this kind of significant decline, we always wonder what has changed in the business. Dividends are about stability, and Duncan Fox's earnings per share, which support the dividend, have been anything but stable.

Conclusion

Dividend investors should always want to know if a) a company's dividends are affordable, b) if there is a track record of consistent payments, and c) if the dividend is capable of growing. It's great to see that Duncan Fox is paying out a low percentage of its earnings and cash flow. Earnings per share are down, and Duncan Fox's dividend has been cut at least once in the past, which is disappointing. In sum, we find it hard to get excited about Duncan Fox from a dividend perspective. It's not that we think it's a bad business; just that there are other companies that perform better on these criteria.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Taking the debate a bit further, we've identified 1 warning sign for Duncan Fox that investors need to be conscious of moving forward.

If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of dividend stocks yielding above 3%.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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