Shareholders appeared unconcerned with SMU S.A.'s (SNSE:SMU) lackluster earnings report last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
View our latest analysis for SMU
A Closer Look At SMU's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to September 2024, SMU recorded an accrual ratio of -0.11. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of CL$199b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CL$69.7b. SMU's year-on-year free cash flow was as flat as two-day-old fizzy drink.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On SMU's Profit Performance
As we discussed above, SMU has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think SMU's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And the EPS is up 17% annually, over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Be aware that SMU is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of SMU's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SNSE:SMU
Undervalued second-rate dividend payer.
