Shopify Inc.

SWX:SHOP Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 127.2b

Shopify Valuation

Is SHOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of SHOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: SHOP (CHF97.14) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CHF118.96)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: SHOP is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHOP?

Key metric: As SHOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHOP. This is calculated by dividing SHOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio116.7x
EarningsUS$1.33b
Market CapUS$158.24b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average43.5x
300442 Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group
26.7x1.09%CN¥138.7b
OKTA Okta
99.5x19.72%US$24.4b
TEMN Temenos
20x2.26%CHF 4.7b
VRSN VeriSign
27.8x5.44%US$23.3b
SHOP Shopify
116.7x28.30%CHF 158.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: Insufficient data to calculate SHOP's Price-To-Earnings Ratio vs. peers for valuation analysis.

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European IT Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SHOP 116.7xIndustry Avg. 18.2xNo. of Companies23PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (116.7x) compared to the European IT industry average (18.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio116.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SHOP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 97.14
CHF 119.29
+22.80%
15.64%CHF 160.96CHF 84.51n/a45
Jun ’27n/a
CHF 116.86
0%
15.35%CHF 157.32CHF 82.59n/a45
May ’27n/a
CHF 124.67
0%
15.76%CHF 156.34CHF 85.99n/a45
Apr ’27n/a
CHF 127.28
0%
15.84%CHF 158.95CHF 87.42n/a46
Mar ’27n/a
CHF 124.22
0%
15.61%CHF 153.76CHF 84.57n/a45
Feb ’27n/a
CHF 139.09
0%
10.52%CHF 170.06CHF 100.49n/a45
Jan ’27n/a
CHF 139.60
0%
10.81%CHF 157.18CHF 98.24n/a46
Dec ’26n/a
CHF 141.20
0%
11.76%CHF 160.97CHF 100.61n/a46
Nov ’26n/a
CHF 133.46
0%
14.19%CHF 160.93CHF 94.95n/a46
Oct ’26n/a
CHF 128.95
0%
13.27%CHF 159.20CHF 93.93n/a46
Sep ’26n/a
CHF 129.28
0%
14.02%CHF 160.48CHF 91.48n/a46
Aug ’26n/a
CHF 96.67
0%
12.30%CHF 124.50CHF 68.27n/a45
Jul ’26n/a
CHF 92.74
0%
10.50%CHF 108.70CHF 68.44CHF 98.8345
Jun ’26n/a
CHF 94.32
0%
10.32%CHF 111.07CHF 69.93n/a46
May ’26n/a
CHF 99.74
0%
14.77%CHF 145.18CHF 66.37n/a45
Apr ’26n/a
CHF 118.92
0%
11.32%CHF 154.68CHF 88.39n/a45
Mar ’26CHF 99.08
CHF 120.50
+21.61%
11.25%CHF 156.47CHF 89.41n/a45
Feb ’26CHF 107.84
CHF 111.37
+3.28%
10.70%CHF 132.34CHF 84.88n/a45
Jan ’26CHF 98.62
CHF 106.90
+8.40%
12.58%CHF 129.37CHF 75.84n/a44
Dec ’25CHF 99.40
CHF 103.96
+4.59%
13.80%CHF 128.61CHF 74.51n/a44
Nov ’25CHF 69.11
CHF 71.42
+3.35%
11.84%CHF 90.81CHF 56.22n/a44
Oct ’25CHF 67.65
CHF 68.15
+0.73%
11.43%CHF 88.85CHF 55.00n/a44
Sep ’25CHF 62.67
CHF 66.98
+6.87%
9.58%CHF 85.49CHF 55.57n/a42
Aug ’25CHF 53.23
CHF 67.88
+27.53%
10.97%CHF 88.34CHF 55.65n/a42
Jul ’25CHF 57.45
CHF 68.72
+19.63%
11.29%CHF 89.83CHF 56.59n/a40
CHF 120.53
Fair Value
19.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
45
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/02 20:14
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/02 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shopify Inc. is covered by 83 analysts. 46 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Rocco StraussArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP