Dropbox, Inc.

SWX:1Q5 Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 8.4b

Dropbox Valuation

Is 1Q5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1Q5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1Q5 (CHF24.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF61.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1Q5 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1Q5?

Key metric: As 1Q5 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1Q5. This is calculated by dividing 1Q5's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1Q5's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
EarningsUS$576.80m
Market CapUS$9.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1Q5's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1Q5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average65.4x
TEMN Temenos
36.1x11.6%CHF 4.6b
600845 Shanghai Baosight SoftwareLtd
31.7x24.5%CN¥70.4b
PEGA Pegasystems
66.5x23.9%US$8.2b
INFA Informatica
127.3x29.0%US$8.2b
1Q5 Dropbox
16.2x-0.1%CHF 9.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1Q5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (65.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1Q5's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Software Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1Q5 16.2xIndustry Avg. 26.2xNo. of Companies18PE020406080100+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1Q5 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the European Software industry average (26.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1Q5's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1Q5 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 1Q5's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1Q5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 24.32
CHF 25.44
+4.6%
13.7%CHF 29.72CHF 18.01n/a8
Dec ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 24.44
+0.5%
13.5%CHF 29.06CHF 17.61n/a8
Nov ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 23.18
-4.7%
12.4%CHF 27.86CHF 17.41n/a8
Oct ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 22.45
-7.7%
12.4%CHF 26.98CHF 16.86n/a8
Sep ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 23.44
-3.6%
12.6%CHF 27.67CHF 17.29n/a9
Aug ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 24.73
+1.7%
11.2%CHF 28.71CHF 19.74n/a9
Jul ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 24.73
+1.7%
11.2%CHF 28.71CHF 19.74n/a9
Jun ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 25.07
+3.1%
10.9%CHF 29.00CHF 19.94n/a9
May ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 26.87
+10.5%
13.7%CHF 32.93CHF 21.95n/a10
Apr ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 26.82
+10.3%
12.6%CHF 32.33CHF 21.55n/a10
Mar ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 26.64
+9.5%
12.0%CHF 31.69CHF 21.12n/a10
Feb ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 27.26
+12.1%
13.3%CHF 31.97CHF 20.74n/a11
Jan ’25CHF 24.32
CHF 25.43
+4.6%
12.4%CHF 30.34CHF 20.22n/a11
Dec ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 26.31
+8.2%
11.4%CHF 30.57CHF 21.58CHF 24.3211
Nov ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 27.08
+11.4%
10.5%CHF 31.41CHF 21.54CHF 24.3211
Oct ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 27.08
+11.4%
10.5%CHF 31.41CHF 21.54CHF 24.3211
Sep ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 25.50
+4.9%
13.6%CHF 30.56CHF 19.21CHF 24.3212
Aug ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 24.38
+0.2%
15.3%CHF 29.56CHF 15.65CHF 24.3212
Jul ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 24.14
-0.7%
15.9%CHF 30.49CHF 16.14CHF 24.3212
Jun ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 24.12
-0.8%
17.1%CHF 30.81CHF 16.31CHF 24.3211
May ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 24.10
-0.9%
16.4%CHF 30.47CHF 17.92CHF 24.3211
Apr ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 25.16
+3.4%
15.4%CHF 31.43CHF 18.49CHF 24.3211
Mar ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 25.16
+3.4%
15.4%CHF 31.43CHF 18.49CHF 24.3211
Feb ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 24.81
+2.0%
15.6%CHF 31.32CHF 18.42CHF 24.3211
Jan ’24CHF 24.32
CHF 26.20
+7.7%
16.0%CHF 32.61CHF 19.18CHF 24.3211
Dec ’23CHF 24.32
CHF 26.20
+7.7%
16.0%CHF 32.61CHF 19.18CHF 24.3211

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 06:30
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Dropbox, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Edward MagiBerenberg
Michael FunkBofA Global Research