The ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) Second-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.0% to CHF1.16 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of €819m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with ams-OSRAM losing €0.04 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for ams-OSRAM

Following last week's earnings report, ams-OSRAM's eight analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €3.47b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 11% from last year to €0.80. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.48b and losses of €0.78 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of CHF1.74, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ams-OSRAM, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF2.56 and the most bearish at CHF1.16 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ams-OSRAM is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at ams-OSRAM. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ams-OSRAM's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ams-OSRAM analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for ams-OSRAM that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com