Alcon Inc.'s (VTX:ALC) Has Had A Decent Run On The Stock market: Are Fundamentals In The Driver's Seat?

Most readers would already know that Alcon's (VTX:ALC) stock increased by 7.8% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to investigate if the company's decent financials had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on Alcon's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Alcon

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Alcon is:

5.4% = US$1.2b ÷ US$21b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CHF1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CHF0.05 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Alcon's Earnings Growth And 5.4% ROE

When you first look at it, Alcon's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 12% either. Despite this, surprisingly, Alcon saw an exceptional 65% net income growth over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

As a next step, we compared Alcon's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 11%.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is ALC worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether ALC is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Alcon Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Alcon has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 23%, meaning that it has the remaining 77% left over to reinvest into its business. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Moreover, Alcon is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of four years of paying a dividend. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 9.7% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 8.6%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Alcon has some positive attributes. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.