ARYZTA (SWX:ARYN) Valuation in Focus After Sudden CEO Exit and Steady 2025 Guidance

ARYZTA (SWX:ARYN) saw a major boardroom update as CEO Michael Schai stepped down with immediate effect. Chairman Urs Jordi has taken over as interim CEO. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 earnings and organic growth guidance.

See our latest analysis for ARYZTA.

ARYZTA’s announcement of a new interim CEO arrives as the share price faces pressure, down nearly 28% over the past month and off 35% in the last three months. This signals fading momentum despite stable long-term direction. Still, the company’s three-year total shareholder return of 25% and 108% over five years suggest that those who stayed invested through earlier volatility have seen solid gains.

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With ARYZTA’s shares trading well below analyst targets while the company’s outlook remains steady, investors must ask whether today’s weakness offers a compelling entry point or if the stock’s future growth is already factored into the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 40% Undervalued

ARYZTA’s widely followed narrative places its fair value far above the last close, suggesting the market is overlooking key growth initiatives and sector momentum. This sets the context for a deeper look at what is driving the narrative’s optimistic outlook.

ARYZTA's continued investment in production capacity (with new lines in Malaysia, Switzerland, and Germany ramping up), combined with an active innovation agenda (18% of revenue from new products in H1) positions the business to capture rising demand for convenient, ready-to-bake/frozen bakery products, supporting future revenue growth and potential market share gains.

Read the complete narrative.

What is the key ingredient behind such a bullish valuation? It is not just new products or global expansion. The growth outlook hinges on specific forward-looking profit and revenue assumptions that defy sector averages, hinting at ambitious targets few have uncovered. Curious which numbers turn these strategies into a significant jump in fair value? Hit the CTA to get the full story and see what analysts are really projecting.

Result: Fair Value of $86.23 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cost inflation and tougher competition could easily put pressure on ARYZTA’s margins and challenge the bullish case outlined above.

Find out about the key risks to this ARYZTA narrative.

Build Your Own ARYZTA Narrative

If you think there’s more to the story, or would rather rely on your own analysis, you can assemble your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ARYZTA research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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