ConocoPhillips Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of COP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

COP (CHF59.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF90.51)

Is COP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COP (CHF59.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF90.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for COP. This is calculated by dividing COP's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is COP's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$129.11b

COP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.7x
PEG Ratio	-44.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.8x
883 CNOOC	6.9x	-1.3%	HK$1.0t
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources	13.8x	2.1%	CA$106.1b
EOG EOG Resources	9.7x	-2.1%	US$72.8b
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources	12.9x	0.7%	US$62.5b
COP ConocoPhillips	12.1x	-0.3%	CHF 129.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: Insufficient data to calculate COP's Price-To-Earnings Ratio vs. peers for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	2.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	2.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.1x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate COP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 59.20	CHF 120.66 +103.8%	8.8%	CHF 139.55	CHF 97.08	n/a	26
Aug ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 122.25 +106.5%	8.9%	CHF 140.65	CHF 97.85	n/a	26
Jul ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 128.02 +116.3%	9.2%	CHF 149.20	CHF 100.66	n/a	25
Jun ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 128.19 +116.5%	8.9%	CHF 149.77	CHF 101.05	n/a	25
May ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 129.21 +118.3%	8.7%	CHF 151.14	CHF 101.97	n/a	28
Apr ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 122.10 +106.3%	9.6%	CHF 156.02	CHF 91.09	n/a	27
Mar ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 118.49 +100.2%	9.8%	CHF 152.27	CHF 88.90	n/a	28
Feb ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 116.45 +96.7%	10.0%	CHF 149.48	CHF 87.27	n/a	28
Jan ’25	CHF 59.20	CHF 115.30 +94.8%	9.2%	CHF 138.43	CHF 85.25	n/a	28
Dec ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 120.91 +104.2%	9.3%	CHF 143.33	CHF 85.65	n/a	28
Nov ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 122.83 +107.5%	10.7%	CHF 147.87	CHF 88.36	n/a	26
Oct ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 120.62 +103.7%	10.6%	CHF 146.46	CHF 89.71	n/a	26
Sep ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 115.21 +94.6%	10.0%	CHF 135.20	CHF 86.60	n/a	26
Aug ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 110.64 +86.9%	10.9%	CHF 132.92	CHF 81.67	CHF 59.20	25
Jul ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 115.56 +95.2%	12.4%	CHF 147.68	CHF 84.13	CHF 59.20	24
Jun ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 117.43 +98.4%	13.1%	CHF 149.51	CHF 85.18	CHF 59.20	25
May ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 115.64 +95.3%	13.0%	CHF 148.99	CHF 82.08	CHF 59.20	26
Apr ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 120.58 +103.7%	12.5%	CHF 140.62	CHF 79.96	CHF 59.20	25
Mar ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 125.12 +111.3%	12.4%	CHF 149.75	CHF 86.11	CHF 59.20	26
Feb ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 124.46 +110.2%	11.7%	CHF 145.40	CHF 87.24	CHF 59.20	26
Jan ’24	CHF 59.20	CHF 128.89 +117.7%	12.2%	CHF 155.27	CHF 89.26	CHF 59.20	27
Dec ’23	CHF 59.20	CHF 130.10 +119.8%	13.1%	CHF 157.31	CHF 90.43	CHF 59.20	27
Nov ’23	CHF 59.20	CHF 129.78 +119.2%	12.4%	CHF 167.20	CHF 87.10	CHF 59.20	28
Oct ’23	CHF 59.20	CHF 121.21 +104.8%	9.9%	CHF 149.49	CHF 93.80	CHF 59.20	26
Sep ’23	CHF 59.20	CHF 119.34 +101.6%	9.5%	CHF 149.60	CHF 93.86	CHF 59.20	26
Aug ’23	CHF 59.20	CHF 117.66 +98.8%	9.6%	CHF 142.51	CHF 92.44	CHF 59.20	26

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.