Analysts Are Updating Their Julius Bär Gruppe AG (VTX:BAER) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results

Shareholders might have noticed that Julius Bär Gruppe AG (VTX:BAER) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to CHF47.45 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CHF1.9b and statutory earnings per share of CHF2.21. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Julius Bär Gruppe after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Julius Bär Gruppe

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Julius Bär Gruppe's 13 analysts is for revenues of CHF3.94b in 2024. This would reflect a huge 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 143% to CHF4.43. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF4.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF4.72 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF59.16, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Julius Bär Gruppe at CHF67.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF50.80. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Julius Bär Gruppe's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 56% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Julius Bär Gruppe is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Julius Bär Gruppe. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Julius Bär Gruppe going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Julius Bär Gruppe you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com