Stadler Rail AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Stadler Rail AG (VTX:SRAIL) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CHF3.3b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 50%, coming in at just CHF0.38 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Stadler Rail after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the six analysts covering Stadler Rail are now predicting revenues of CHF3.69b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 196% to CHF1.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF3.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.32 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Stadler Rail

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CHF20.46, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Stadler Rail's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Stadler Rail analyst has a price target of CHF23.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF17.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Stadler Rail's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Stadler Rail is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Stadler Rail's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stadler Rail going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Stadler Rail that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.