Montana Aerospace AG (VTX:AERO) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Montana Aerospace AG (VTX:AERO) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to CHF12.88 in the past week. Revenues of €351m missed forecasts by 17%, but at least statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with per-share losses of €0.09 coming in 44% smaller than what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Montana Aerospace

Following the latest results, Montana Aerospace's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of €1.54b in 2023. This would be an okay 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Montana Aerospace is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.079 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.26 in 2023. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CHF24.75, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Montana Aerospace analyst has a price target of CHF31.88 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF19.93. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Montana Aerospace's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 39% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Montana Aerospace's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Montana Aerospace. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Montana Aerospace going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Montana Aerospace is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.