Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Emera Incorporated (TSE:EMA) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Emera
How Much Debt Does Emera Carry?
As you can see below, Emera had CA$15.3b of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Strong Is Emera's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Emera had liabilities of CA$4.88b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$17.1b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CA$220.0m in cash and CA$845.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CA$20.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CA$12.8b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Emera would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 1.7 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 hit our confidence in Emera like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that Emera saw its EBIT drop by 14% over the last twelve months. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Emera can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Emera burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Emera's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its interest cover also fails to instill confidence. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Emera commonly do use debt without problems. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that Emera really is carrying too much debt. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Emera (including 2 which are a bit unpleasant) .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About TSX:EMA
Emera
An energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the United States, Canada, Barbados, and the Bahamas.
Second-rate dividend payer low.
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