Exchange Income Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It's been a good week for Exchange Income Corporation (TSE:EIF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.6% to CA$56.85. Revenues were CA$668m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CA$0.14, an impressive 367% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Exchange Income. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Exchange Income from eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$2.96b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 8.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 27% to CA$3.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$2.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$3.42 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Exchange Income

The consensus price target held steady at CA$70.55, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Exchange Income, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$77.00 and the most bearish at CA$66.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Exchange Income's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Exchange Income's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Exchange Income's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Exchange Income. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$70.55, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Exchange Income analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Exchange Income you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.