Results: Chorus Aviation Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSE:CHR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.6% to CA$20.10. Revenues were CA$348m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CA$0.70, an impressive 22% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Chorus Aviation's seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CA$1.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Chorus Aviation forecast to report a statutory profit of CA$2.40 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$1.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.30 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Chorus Aviation's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Chorus Aviation

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$27.68, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Chorus Aviation, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$30.00 and the most bearish at CA$23.50 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Chorus Aviation's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Chorus Aviation following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Chorus Aviation's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$27.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Chorus Aviation analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chorus Aviation you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.