Air Canada's (TSE:AC) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.9x Air Canada (TSE:AC) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Canada have P/E ratios greater than 15x and even P/E's higher than 30x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Air Canada's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

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How Is Air Canada's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Air Canada would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 24%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 16% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 12% per annum.

With this information, we are not surprised that Air Canada is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Air Canada maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Air Canada (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Air Canada. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.