Stock Analysis
Investors might be losing patience for Noble Iron's (CVE:NIR.H) increasing losses, as stock sheds 23% over the past week
Most people feel a little frustrated if a stock they own goes down in price. But sometimes a share price fall can have more to do with market conditions than the performance of the specific business. The Noble Iron Inc. (CVE:NIR.H) is down 83% over a year, but the total shareholder return is 265% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 5.4%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 11% over three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 83% in the last three months. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
With the stock having lost 23% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
See our latest analysis for Noble Iron
Noble Iron isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Noble Iron grew its revenue by 358% over the last year. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 83% over twelve months. There's clearly something unusual going on here such as an acquisition that hasn't delivered expected profits. We'd recommend taking a very close look at the stock (and any available forecasts), before considering a purchase, because the share price is not correlated with the revenue growth, that's for sure. Of course, investors do over-react when they are stressed out, so the sell-off could be unjustifiably severe.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Take a more thorough look at Noble Iron's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Noble Iron's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Noble Iron hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 265% exceeds its share price return of -83%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Noble Iron shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 265% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 67% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Noble Iron is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.