Despite shrinking by US$206m in the past week, Kinaxis (TSE:KXS) shareholders are still up 96% over 3 years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 21, 2022
TSX:KXS
Source: Shutterstock

Kinaxis Inc. (TSE:KXS) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 14% in the last month. But over three years, the returns would have left most investors smiling To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 96% during that period.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.9%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for Kinaxis

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years of share price growth, Kinaxis actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 46% per year.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

It may well be that Kinaxis revenue growth rate of 16% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:KXS Earnings and Revenue Growth April 21st 2022

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Kinaxis in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Kinaxis had a tough year, with a total loss of 6.4%, against a market gain of about 19%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 12%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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