Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust

TSX:MRG.UN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$994.2m

Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation

Is MRG.UN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRG.UN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRG.UN (CA$18.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$21.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRG.UN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRG.UN?

Key metric: As MRG.UN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRG.UN. This is calculated by dividing MRG.UN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRG.UN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsCA$78.38m
Market CapCA$994.18m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRG.UN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRG.UN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.4x
KMP.UN Killam Apartment REIT
7.2xn/aCA$2.3b
BEI.UN Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust
5xn/aCA$3.7b
CAR.UN Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust
21.7x21.7%CA$7.6b
MHC.UN Flagship Communities Real Estate Investment Trust
3.9x-49.5%CA$537.1m
MRG.UN Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust
8.6xn/aCA$994.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRG.UN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRG.UN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Residential REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRG.UN 8.6xIndustry Avg. 26.5xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRG.UN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the Global Residential REITs industry average (26.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRG.UN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRG.UN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MRG.UN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRG.UN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$18.52
CA$22.33
+20.6%
2.1%CA$23.00CA$22.00n/a3
Nov ’25CA$17.75
CA$22.33
+25.8%
2.1%CA$23.00CA$22.00n/a3
Oct ’25CA$19.07
CA$21.33
+11.9%
8.0%CA$23.00CA$19.00n/a3
Sep ’25CA$18.22
CA$21.00
+15.3%
6.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a3
Aug ’25CA$16.51
CA$21.00
+27.2%
6.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a3
Jul ’25CA$15.48
CA$20.33
+31.4%
6.1%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a3
Jun ’25CA$15.29
CA$20.33
+33.0%
6.1%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a3
May ’25CA$14.92
CA$20.33
+36.3%
6.1%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a3
Apr ’25CA$15.76
CA$21.00
+33.2%
6.7%CA$23.00CA$20.00n/a3
Mar ’25CA$15.80
CA$21.00
+32.9%
6.7%CA$23.00CA$20.00n/a3
Feb ’25CA$15.33
CA$21.00
+37.0%
6.7%CA$23.00CA$20.00n/a3
Jan ’25CA$14.77
CA$21.00
+42.2%
6.7%CA$23.00CA$20.00n/a3
Dec ’24CA$13.92
CA$20.67
+48.5%
4.6%CA$22.00CA$20.00n/a3
Nov ’24CA$13.22
CA$20.67
+56.3%
4.6%CA$22.00CA$20.00CA$17.753
Oct ’24CA$14.85
CA$23.33
+57.1%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$19.073
Sep ’24CA$15.74
CA$23.33
+48.2%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$18.223
Aug ’24CA$16.26
CA$23.33
+43.5%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$16.513
Jul ’24CA$16.85
CA$23.33
+38.5%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$15.483
Jun ’24CA$16.67
CA$23.33
+40.0%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$15.293
May ’24CA$17.11
CA$23.33
+36.4%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$14.923
Apr ’24CA$17.40
CA$23.33
+34.1%
2.0%CA$24.00CA$23.00CA$15.763
Mar ’24CA$18.26
CA$22.83
+25.0%
4.5%CA$24.00CA$21.50CA$15.803
Feb ’24CA$18.58
CA$21.38
+15.0%
5.6%CA$23.00CA$20.00CA$15.334
Jan ’24CA$16.20
CA$21.38
+31.9%
5.6%CA$23.00CA$20.00CA$14.774
Dec ’23CA$16.61
CA$21.38
+28.7%
5.6%CA$23.00CA$20.00CA$13.924
Nov ’23CA$15.97
CA$21.38
+33.8%
5.6%CA$23.00CA$20.00CA$13.224

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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