Tricon Residential Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Tricon Residential's revenue is forecast to decline at 31.9% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 4.7% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.4% in 3 years.

Key information

4.7%

Earnings growth rate

26.1%

EPS growth rate

Real Estate earnings growth	22.4%
Revenue growth rate	-31.9%
Future return on equity	5.4%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	11 Mar 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN) Shares Could Be 22% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Jul 25

Is Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) A Risky Investment?

Jun 04

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN)?

Apr 06

With EPS Growth And More, Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Makes An Interesting Case

Mar 07

At CA$13.75, Is Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN) Worth Looking At Closely?

Jul 25

I Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Passed With Ease

Jun 11

Are Investors Undervaluing Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN) By 22%?

May 30

Is Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Using Too Much Debt?

May 18

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN)?

Apr 07

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

TSX:TCN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2025	539	125	N/A	N/A	1
12/31/2024	495	90	N/A	158	2
12/31/2023	885	114	92	138	N/A
9/30/2023	856	206	127	172	N/A
6/30/2023	926	293	142	185	N/A
3/31/2023	890	652	213	247	N/A
12/31/2022	838	774	234	270	N/A
9/30/2022	793	829	214	249	N/A
6/30/2022	631	835	188	223	N/A
3/31/2022	581	563	110	148	N/A
12/31/2021	540	455	86	119	N/A
9/30/2021	501	421	107	135	N/A
6/30/2021	476	300	94	117	N/A
3/31/2021	450	198	110	121	N/A
12/31/2020	356	110	130	143	N/A
9/30/2020	245	80	159	162	N/A
6/30/2020	151	59	75	84	N/A
3/31/2020	61	41	32	39	N/A
12/31/2019	50	112	-45	-44	N/A
9/30/2019	95	111	-88	-79	N/A
6/30/2019	149	113	-60	-60	N/A
3/31/2019	171	121	-13	-8	N/A
12/31/2018	276	193	-22	-17	N/A
9/30/2018	276	174	-56	-51	N/A
6/30/2018	280	196	-44	-39	N/A
3/31/2018	251	153	-338	-338	N/A
12/31/2017	169	63	-321	-321	N/A
9/30/2017	131	47	N/A	-225	N/A
6/30/2017	97	15	N/A	-267	N/A
3/31/2017	111	52	N/A	-76	N/A
12/31/2016	111	59	N/A	-61	N/A
9/30/2016	116	80	N/A	-176	N/A
6/30/2016	108	89	N/A	-163	N/A
3/31/2016	100	82	N/A	-81	N/A
12/31/2015	102	58	N/A	-67	N/A
9/30/2015	152	73	N/A	-30	N/A
6/30/2015	174	79	N/A	14	N/A
3/31/2015	159	60	N/A	-2	N/A
12/31/2014	169	99	N/A	-9	N/A
9/30/2014	131	70	N/A	11	N/A
6/30/2014	101	30	N/A	-215	N/A
3/31/2014	112	53	N/A	-264	N/A
12/31/2013	86	34	N/A	-298	N/A
9/30/2013	54	17	N/A	-370	N/A
6/30/2013	38	15	N/A	-164	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TCN's forecast earnings growth (4.7% per year) is above the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: TCN's earnings (4.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (12.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TCN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TCN's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-31.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TCN's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-31.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TCN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/05/01 13:26
End of Day Share Price	2024/05/01 00:00
Earnings	2023/12/31
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tricon Residential Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Wojtek Nowak	ATB Capital Markets
Stephen MacLeod	BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Mark Rothschild	Canaccord Genuity

Tricon Residential Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 45%

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16%

Price target decreased by 7.3% to CA$12.81

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CA$13.01

Recent updates

Tricon Residential Files Form 15

Common Shares of Tricon Residential to be De-Listed from the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange on May 2, 2024

Tricon Residential Inc.(TSX:TCN) dropped from S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index

Tricon Residential's Common Shares to be Delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange

Tricon Residential's Common Shares to be Delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange

New minor risk - Insider selling

Independent Director recently sold CA$5.3m worth of stock

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 27, 2024

Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire remaining 89% stake in Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $2.7 billion.

Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire remaining 89% stake in Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $2.7 billion.

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. and Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $3.5 billion.

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

President exercised options to buy CA$2.1m worth of stock.

President recently bought CA$509k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.6% yield

When Should You Buy Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN)?

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 45%

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12%

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on or After January 15, 2024

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 08, 2023

Is Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) A Risky Investment?

Insufficient new directors

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.9% yield

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16%

Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN)?

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.17 (vs US$1.47 in 2Q 2022)

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After October 15, 2023

Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN) Shares Could Be 22% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 09, 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.7% yield

Is Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) A Risky Investment?

First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.098 (vs US$0.59 in 1Q 2022)

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After July 15, 2023

Price target decreased by 7.3% to CA$12.81

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN)?

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 3.1% yield

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%

With EPS Growth And More, Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Makes An Interesting Case

Price target decreased by 7.1% to CA$13.01

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Mar 02, 2023

Price target decreased by 8.7% to CA$14.93

Executive VP & CFO recently bought CA$50k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Executive VP & CFO recently bought CA$201k worth of stock

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After January 15, 2023

Price target decreased to CA$16.26

Price target decreased to CA$17.24

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company completed the acquisition of 20% stake in Portfolio of 23 Sun Belt Apartment Buildings.

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company completed the acquisition of 20% stake in Portfolio of 23 Sun Belt Apartment Buildings.

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company entered into an agreement to acquire 20% stake in portfolio of 23 Sun Belt apartment buildings from Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for approximately CAD 320 million.

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 09, 2022

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Consensus forecasts updated

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After October 15, 2022

At CA$13.75, Is Tricon Residential Inc. (TSE:TCN) Worth Looking At Closely?

Price target decreased to CA$19.38

Price target decreased to CA$20.05

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q2, 2022 Results on Aug 11, 2022

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

I Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Tricon Residential (TSE:TCN) Passed With Ease