Real Matters Inc. (TSE:REAL) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a good week for Real Matters Inc. (TSE:REAL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.8% to CA$6.24. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$170m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.31 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Real Matters' five analysts is for revenues of US$207.3m in 2026. This would reflect a major 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 97% to US$0.01 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$214.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.055 in 2026. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Real Matters, administering a small dip in to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

See our latest analysis for Real Matters

There was no major change to the consensus price target of CA$8.01, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Real Matters at CA$10.51 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$6.01. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Real Matters is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 22% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 28% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.1% annually. So it looks like Real Matters is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Real Matters to become unprofitable next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Real Matters analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.