Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SM (CA$0.44) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$3.03)

Is SM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SM (CA$0.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$3.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM?

Key metric: As SM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SM. This is calculated by dividing SM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	19.1x
Sales	US$2.54m
Market Cap	US$48.46m

SM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	21x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-11x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.9x
BCM Bear Creek Mining	0.7x	n/a	CA$96.8m
GSVR Guanajuato Silver	0.9x	10.0%	CA$94.4m
EMPR Empress Royalty	4.6x	n/a	CA$41.5m
LIO Lion One Metals	5.2x	n/a	CA$76.0m
SM Sierra Madre Gold and Silver	19.1x	43.6%	CA$67.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.1x) compared to the peer average (2.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

84 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
LUN Lundin Mining	1.9x	4.4%	US$7.85b
BTO B2Gold	2x	16.3%	US$3.81b
HBM Hudbay Minerals	1.8x	4.9%	US$3.59b
STLC Stelco Holdings	1.3x	-0.1%	US$2.66b

84 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.1x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	19.1x
Fair PS Ratio	1.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$0.44	CA$1.08 +144.3%	20.9%	CA$1.30	CA$0.85	n/a	2
Nov ’25	CA$0.57	CA$1.08 +88.6%	20.9%	CA$1.30	CA$0.85	n/a	2
Oct ’25	CA$0.57	CA$1.08 +88.6%	20.9%	CA$1.30	CA$0.85	n/a	2
Sep ’25	CA$0.45	CA$1.03 +127.8%	26.8%	CA$1.30	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Aug ’25	CA$0.43	CA$0.88 +103.5%	14.3%	CA$1.00	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Jul ’25	CA$0.45	CA$0.88 +96.6%	14.3%	CA$1.00	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Jun ’25	CA$0.47	CA$0.88 +86.2%	14.3%	CA$1.00	CA$0.75	n/a	2
May ’25	CA$0.38	CA$0.82 +117.1%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Apr ’25	CA$0.28	CA$0.82 +189.5%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Mar ’25	CA$0.29	CA$0.82 +184.5%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Feb ’25	CA$0.29	CA$0.82 +184.5%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Jan ’25	CA$0.38	CA$0.82 +120.0%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2
Dec ’24	CA$0.43	CA$0.82 +89.7%	9.1%	CA$0.90	CA$0.75	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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