Stock Analysis

Is Northern Graphite (CVE:NGC) Using Too Much Debt?

TSXV:NGC
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Northern Graphite Corporation (CVE:NGC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Northern Graphite

What Is Northern Graphite's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Northern Graphite had CA$17.5m of debt, up from CA$14.6m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have CA$2.78m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CA$14.8m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSXV:NGC Debt to Equity History December 22nd 2023

How Strong Is Northern Graphite's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Northern Graphite had liabilities of CA$13.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$59.5m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$2.78m as well as receivables valued at CA$3.20m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$66.8m.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CA$26.7m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Northern Graphite would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Northern Graphite's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Over 12 months, Northern Graphite reported revenue of CA$17m, which is a gain of 104%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. So its pretty obvious shareholders are hoping for more growth!

Caveat Emptor

Despite the top line growth, Northern Graphite still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Its EBIT loss was a whopping CA$12m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it had negative free cash flow of CA$13m over the last twelve months. That means it's on the risky side of things. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Northern Graphite you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit unpleasant.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Northern Graphite might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.