What Kind Of Risk Should You Expect For GobiMin Inc (CVE:GMN)?

For GobiMin Inc’s (CVE:GMN) shareholders, and also potential investors in the stock, understanding how the stock’s risk and return characteristics can impact your portfolio is important. Broadly speaking, there are two types of risk you should consider when investing in stocks such as GMN. The first risk to consider is company-specific, which can be diversified away when you invest in other companies in the same industry as GMN, because it is rare that an entire industry collapses at once. The second type is market risk, one that you cannot diversify away, since it arises from macroeconomic factors which directly affects all the stocks in the market.

Different characteristics of a stock expose it to various levels of market risk. A popular measure of market risk for a stock is its beta, and the market as a whole represents a beta value of one. A stock with a beta greater than one is expected to exhibit higher volatility resulting from market-wide shocks compared to one with a beta below one.

See our latest analysis for GobiMin

What does GMN’s beta value mean?

With a beta of 1.18, GobiMin is a stock that tends to experience more gains than the market during a growth phase and also a bigger reduction in value compared to the market during a broad downturn. Based on this beta value, GMN will help diversify your portfolio, if it currently comprises of low-beta stocks. This will be beneficial for portfolio returns, in particular, when current market sentiment is positive.

TSXV:GMN Income Statement July 3rd 18
TSXV:GMN Income Statement July 3rd 18

Could GMN’s size and industry cause it to be more volatile?

GMN, with its market capitalisation of US$20.00m, is a small-cap stock, which generally have higher beta than similar companies of larger size. Moreover, GMN’s industry, metals and mining, is considered to be cyclical, which means it is more volatile than the market over the economic cycle. As a result, we should expect higher beta for small-cap stocks in a cyclical industry compared to larger stocks in a defensive industry. This is consistent with GMN’s individual beta value we discussed above. Fundamental factors can also drive the cyclicality of the stock, which we will take a look at next.

Can GMN’s asset-composition point to a higher beta?

An asset-heavy company tends to have a higher beta because the risk associated with running fixed assets during a downturn is highly expensive. I examine GMN’s ratio of fixed assets to total assets to see whether the company is highly exposed to the risk of this type of constraint. Given a fixed to total assets ratio of over 30%, GMN seems to be a company which invests a big chunk of its capital on assets that cannot be scaled down on short-notice. Thus, we can expect GMN to be more volatile in the face of market movements, relative to its peers of similar size but with a lower proportion of fixed assets on their books. Similarly, GMN’s beta value conveys the same message.

What this means for you:

You could benefit from higher returns from GMN during times of economic growth. Its higher fixed cost isn’t a major concern given margins are covered with high consumer demand. Though, in times of a downturn, it may be safe to look at a more defensive stock which can cushion the impact of lower demand. What I have not mentioned in my article here are important company-specific fundamentals such as GobiMin’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for GMN’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for GMN’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has GMN been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of GMN’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.