Stock Analysis

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSE:WPM) shareholders have earned a 41% CAGR over the last three years

TSX:WPM
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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. To wit, the Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:WPM) share price has flown 169% in the last three years. Most would be happy with that. It's also good to see the share price up 22% over the last quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 16% in the last three months.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years of share price growth, Wheaton Precious Metals actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 6.4% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Given this situation, it makes sense to look at other metrics too.

Languishing at just 0.7%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 6.4% per year is viewed as evidence that Wheaton Precious Metals is growing. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:WPM Earnings and Revenue Growth July 4th 2025

Wheaton Precious Metals is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Wheaton Precious Metals stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Wheaton Precious Metals' TSR for the last 3 years was 179%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Wheaton Precious Metals has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 67% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 16%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Wheaton Precious Metals that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Wheaton Precious Metals might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.