Earnings Miss: Winpak Ltd. Missed EPS By 21% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$273m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just US$0.49 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Winpak's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.15b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.28, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.52 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Winpak

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$49.54, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Winpak's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Winpak analyst has a price target of CA$53.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$47.26. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Winpak is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winpak's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this to the 7 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Winpak's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Winpak. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$49.54, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Winpak going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Winpak Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.