Taseko Mines (TSX:TKO): Assessing Valuation After a 113% Year-to-Date Rally

Taseko Mines (TSX:TKO) shares have pulled back from recent highs, which has sparked fresh discussion about its year-to-date performance and possible catalysts ahead. Investors are reviewing the stock’s trajectory, with gains approaching 113% in 2024 so far.

See our latest analysis for Taseko Mines.

Taseko Mines’ 113% year-to-date share price return is certainly catching attention and comes on the heels of a strong 24.7% gain over the past month. With momentum clearly building, the company’s three-year total shareholder return of 322% shows just how much value long-term investors have seen, even as recent news takes a back seat to the price action.

If Taseko’s rally has you in search of what else might be gaining ground, now’s an ideal time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With share prices soaring and significant returns logged, some investors are now considering whether Taseko Mines’ current valuation leaves room for more upside, or if future growth is already fully reflected in the stock price.

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Overvalued

Taseko Mines’ most followed narrative puts its fair value at CA$5.76, which is below the recent close of CA$6.16. Despite strong operational progress, the narrative signals that recent price strength may have outpaced the fundamentals that support the company’s future earnings outlook.

“Operational improvements and access to higher-grade ore at the Gibraltar mine are expected to lead to a step-change in copper production volumes and lower unit cash costs in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, which should boost both revenues and operating margins.”

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why the narrative’s fair value lags the share price? Discover which surprise revenue engine and margin leap the story’s calculations hinge on. Forget the headline percentages—the details in this forecast might challenge your assumptions about growth and value.

Result: Fair Value of $5.76 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing regulatory hurdles and heavy reliance on just a few key mining projects could still challenge Taseko Mines’ long-term upside narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Taseko Mines narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Signals Undervaluation

While the popular narrative suggests Taseko Mines is overvalued, the SWS DCF model tells a very different story. The model estimates a fair value of CA$20.46 per share, which is significantly above the current price. Could the market be missing something fundamental about future cash flows, or is the optimism built into the model too aggressive?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Taseko Mines for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Taseko Mines Narrative

If you’re inspired to go beyond consensus opinions or want to test your own perspective, you can dig into the numbers and shape your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Taseko Mines research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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