Volatility 101: Should Titan Mining (TSE:TI) Shares Have Dropped 43%?

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market – but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the Titan Mining Corporation (TSE:TI) share price is down 43% in the last year. That’s well bellow the market return of 3.6%. Titan Mining may have better days ahead, of course; we’ve only looked at a one year period. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 20% in thirty days.

Check out our latest analysis for Titan Mining

With zero revenue generated over twelve months, we Titan Mining has proved its business plan yet. We can’t help wondering why it’s publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Titan Mining will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.

Our data indicates that Titan Mining had net debt of US$26,622,000 when it last reported in September 2018. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But with the share price diving 43% in the last year, it’s probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Titan Mining’s cash and debt levels have changed over time.

TSX:TI Historical Debt, March 8th 2019
TSX:TI Historical Debt, March 8th 2019

In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I’d like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 3.6% in the last year, Titan Mining shareholders might be miffed that they lost 43%. While the aim is to do better than that, it’s worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. With the stock down 16% over the last three months, the market doesn’t seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we’d remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

Titan Mining is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.