Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Signal Gold Inc. (TSE:SGNL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Signal Gold
What Is Signal Gold's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2022, Signal Gold had CA$11.0m of debt, up from CA$1.18m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CA$9.25m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$1.77m.
How Strong Is Signal Gold's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Signal Gold had liabilities of CA$19.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$8.18m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$9.25m as well as receivables valued at CA$548.9k due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CA$17.8m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Signal Gold is worth CA$61.6m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Signal Gold can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Over 12 months, Signal Gold reported revenue of CA$42m, which is a gain of 50%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. Shareholders probably have their fingers crossed that it can grow its way to profits.
Caveat Emptor
Despite the top line growth, Signal Gold still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost a very considerable CA$8.6m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through CA$11m of cash over the last year. So in short it's a really risky stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Signal Gold (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:SGNL
Signal Gold
Operates as a gold development and exploration company in Canada.
Slight with mediocre balance sheet.