Aura Minerals Valuation

Is ORA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORA (CA$17.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$86.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORA?

Key metric: As ORA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ORA. This is calculated by dividing ORA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ORA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.7x
SalesUS$546.97m
Market CapUS$920.93m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ORA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ORA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.2x
AAUC Allied Gold
1.1x24.9%CA$1.1b
ARIS Aris Mining
1.5x25.8%CA$1.0b
CG Centerra Gold
1.1x-6.8%CA$1.8b
SSRM SSR Mining
1.1x2.4%CA$1.7b
ORA Aura Minerals
1.7x14.8%CA$1.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ORA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (1.2x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ORA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

84 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.0x16.8%
ORA Aura Minerals
1.7x14.8%US$920.93m
LUN Lundin Mining
1.9x4.4%US$7.86b
BTO B2Gold
2x16.3%US$3.81b
ORA 1.7xIndustry Avg. 3.0xNo. of Companies84PS0816243240+
84 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.0x41.3%
ORA Aura Minerals
1.7x66.8%US$920.93m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ORA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.7x
Fair PS Ratio2.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ORA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$17.80
CA$14.70
-17.4%
35.3%CA$19.97CA$7.65n/a3
Nov ’25CA$17.47
CA$14.76
-15.5%
34.7%CA$19.99CA$7.79n/a3
Oct ’25CA$16.00
CA$13.14
-17.9%
41.7%CA$17.50CA$5.41n/a3
Sep ’25CA$12.85
CA$13.14
+2.2%
41.7%CA$17.50CA$5.41n/a3
Aug ’25CA$14.19
CA$16.12
+13.6%
10.8%CA$17.50CA$13.68n/a3
Jul ’25CA$11.51
CA$15.63
+35.8%
9.7%CA$17.32CA$13.64n/a3
Jun ’25CA$12.48
CA$14.55
+16.6%
11.3%CA$17.01CA$12.65n/a4
May ’25CA$10.38
CA$14.44
+39.1%
9.9%CA$16.49CA$12.66n/a4
Apr ’25CA$10.45
CA$13.44
+28.6%
6.9%CA$14.92CA$12.48n/a4
Mar ’25CA$8.71
CA$13.51
+55.1%
7.1%CA$15.01CA$12.49n/a4
Feb ’25CA$8.83
CA$15.01
+70.0%
14.5%CA$19.15CA$12.94n/a5
Jan ’25CA$9.23
CA$14.72
+59.5%
14.5%CA$18.86CA$12.86n/a5
Dec ’24CA$9.85
CA$14.69
+49.1%
13.9%CA$18.67CA$13.06n/a5
Nov ’24CA$9.25
CA$15.33
+65.7%
13.8%CA$19.31CA$13.35CA$17.475
Oct ’24CA$8.84
CA$15.11
+70.9%
11.2%CA$18.02CA$13.18CA$16.005
Sep ’24CA$9.00
CA$15.10
+67.8%
11.2%CA$18.02CA$13.14CA$12.855
Aug ’24CA$10.15
CA$15.22
+49.9%
14.5%CA$19.01CA$12.75CA$14.195
Jul ’24CA$8.97
CA$15.07
+68.0%
12.7%CA$17.78CA$12.42CA$11.515
Jun ’24CA$9.75
CA$15.22
+56.1%
12.6%CA$18.02CA$12.60CA$12.485
May ’24CA$10.85
CA$15.91
+46.6%
15.5%CA$18.22CA$11.27CA$10.385
Apr ’24CA$10.66
CA$15.44
+44.9%
16.0%CA$17.98CA$11.09CA$10.455
Mar ’24CA$10.42
CA$15.45
+48.3%
16.0%CA$17.98CA$11.09CA$8.715
Feb ’24CA$11.68
CA$16.13
+38.1%
21.9%CA$20.77CA$10.99CA$8.834
Jan ’24CA$7.93
CA$16.51
+108.2%
22.3%CA$21.50CA$11.30CA$9.234
Dec ’23CA$7.70
CA$16.21
+110.5%
22.2%CA$21.07CA$11.08CA$9.854
Nov ’23CA$10.28
CA$16.68
+62.3%
16.8%CA$20.74CA$13.10CA$9.254

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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