Aris Mining Corporation

TSX:ARIS Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$986.1m

Aris Mining Valuation

Is ARIS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARIS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARIS (CA$5.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$9.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARIS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARIS?

Key metric: As ARIS is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ARIS. This is calculated by dividing ARIS's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ARIS's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesUS$484.51m
Market CapUS$706.29m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ARIS's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ARIS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
AAUC Allied Gold
1.1x23.5%CA$1.1b
ORA Aura Minerals
1.7x14.8%CA$1.2b
CG Centerra Gold
1.1x-6.8%CA$1.8b
WDO Wesdome Gold Mines
3.8x19.4%CA$1.8b
ARIS Aris Mining
1.5x25.8%CA$986.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ARIS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ARIS's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

84 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.9x16.5%
ARIS Aris Mining
 1.5x25.8%US$705.96m
LUN Lundin Mining
1.9x4.4%US$7.89b
BTO B2Gold
2x16.3%US$3.73b
ARIS 1.5xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies84PS0816243240+
84 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.9x40.3%
ARIS Aris Mining
 1.5x112.5%US$705.96m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ARIS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (2.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARIS's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARIS PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ratio2.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ARIS is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARIS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$5.85
CA$10.91
+86.5%
17.7%CA$13.51CA$8.49n/a6
Nov ’25CA$6.30
CA$11.23
+78.3%
17.1%CA$14.21CA$8.99n/a6
Oct ’25CA$6.30
CA$10.45
+65.9%
20.8%CA$13.71CA$7.87n/a6
Sep ’25CA$6.11
CA$9.80
+60.3%
23.7%CA$12.86CA$7.00n/a6
Aug ’25CA$5.94
CA$10.01
+68.5%
22.5%CA$13.00CA$7.03n/a6
Jul ’25CA$5.17
CA$9.48
+83.3%
24.0%CA$12.25CA$7.00n/a6
Jun ’25CA$6.19
CA$9.35
+51.0%
25.2%CA$12.18CA$6.49n/a6
May ’25CA$5.59
CA$9.34
+67.1%
24.8%CA$12.02CA$6.52n/a6
Apr ’25CA$4.90
CA$8.72
+77.9%
29.9%CA$12.06CA$5.85n/a6
Mar ’25CA$3.94
CA$8.64
+119.3%
30.6%CA$12.09CA$5.83n/a6
Feb ’25CA$4.25
CA$8.53
+100.7%
30.9%CA$11.98CA$5.78n/a6
Jan ’25CA$4.37
CA$8.25
+88.8%
29.2%CA$11.79CA$5.63n/a6
Dec ’24CA$4.34
CA$8.19
+88.8%
31.1%CA$11.97CA$5.71n/a6
Nov ’24CA$3.45
CA$7.81
+126.4%
31.2%CA$11.18CA$5.31CA$6.306
Oct ’24CA$3.09
CA$8.02
+159.7%
27.8%CA$10.97CA$5.71CA$6.306
Sep ’24CA$3.10
CA$8.04
+159.3%
27.8%CA$10.99CA$5.75CA$6.116
Aug ’24CA$3.26
CA$8.68
+166.2%
25.3%CA$11.77CA$6.23CA$5.946
Jul ’24CA$3.19
CA$8.87
+178.1%
25.2%CA$11.74CA$6.50CA$5.176
Jun ’24CA$3.43
CA$9.03
+163.1%
25.4%CA$12.05CA$6.50CA$6.196
May ’24CA$3.80
CA$9.19
+142.0%
22.4%CA$11.82CA$6.50CA$5.596
Apr ’24CA$4.17
CA$8.43
+102.3%
22.8%CA$11.84CA$6.41CA$4.906
Mar ’24CA$4.07
CA$8.71
+113.9%
22.5%CA$12.26CA$6.51CA$3.946
Feb ’24CA$4.76
CA$8.78
+84.4%
25.9%CA$11.94CA$5.20CA$4.256
Jan ’24CA$3.35
CA$8.37
+149.8%
24.9%CA$11.52CA$5.67CA$4.376
Dec ’23CA$3.62
CA$8.13
+124.5%
26.8%CA$11.56CA$5.53CA$4.346
Nov ’23CA$3.10
CA$8.39
+170.8%
27.2%CA$11.26CA$5.49CA$3.455

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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