Aris Mining Corporation

TSX:ARIS Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$647.3m

Aris Mining Valuation

Is ARIS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARIS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARIS (CA$4.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$166.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARIS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARIS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ARIS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.2x
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARIS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARIS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.6x
ORA Aura Minerals
16.7x26.6%CA$722.4m
GAU Galiano Gold
12.5x25.6%CA$441.1m
OSK Osisko Mining
4.5x-5.9%CA$974.0m
KRR Karora Resources
96.9x77.8%CA$850.1m
ARIS Aris Mining
41.8x66.2%CA$647.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARIS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.8x) compared to the peer average (7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARIS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a22.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a22.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARIS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.8x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARIS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARIS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio41.8x
Fair PE Ratio38.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARIS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARIS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$4.69
CA$8.69
+85.2%
29.7%CA$12.02CA$5.85n/a6
Mar ’25CA$3.94
CA$8.64
+119.3%
30.6%CA$12.09CA$5.83n/a6
Feb ’25CA$4.25
CA$8.53
+100.7%
30.9%CA$11.98CA$5.78n/a6
Jan ’25CA$4.37
CA$8.25
+88.8%
29.2%CA$11.79CA$5.63n/a6
Dec ’24CA$4.34
CA$8.19
+88.8%
31.1%CA$11.97CA$5.71n/a6
Nov ’24CA$3.45
CA$7.81
+126.4%
31.2%CA$11.18CA$5.31n/a6
Oct ’24CA$3.09
CA$8.02
+159.7%
27.8%CA$10.97CA$5.71n/a6
Sep ’24CA$3.10
CA$8.04
+159.3%
27.8%CA$10.99CA$5.75n/a6
Aug ’24CA$3.26
CA$8.68
+166.2%
25.3%CA$11.77CA$6.23n/a6
Jul ’24CA$3.19
CA$8.87
+178.1%
25.2%CA$11.74CA$6.50n/a6
Jun ’24CA$3.43
CA$9.03
+163.1%
25.4%CA$12.05CA$6.50n/a6
May ’24CA$3.80
CA$9.19
+142.0%
22.4%CA$11.82CA$6.50n/a6
Apr ’24CA$4.17
CA$8.43
+102.3%
22.8%CA$11.84CA$6.41n/a6
Mar ’24CA$4.07
CA$8.71
+113.9%
22.5%CA$12.26CA$6.51CA$3.946
Feb ’24CA$4.76
CA$8.78
+84.4%
25.9%CA$11.94CA$5.20CA$4.256
Jan ’24CA$3.35
CA$8.37
+149.8%
24.9%CA$11.52CA$5.67CA$4.376
Dec ’23CA$3.62
CA$8.13
+124.5%
26.8%CA$11.56CA$5.53CA$4.346
Nov ’23CA$3.10
CA$8.39
+170.8%
27.2%CA$11.26CA$5.49CA$3.455
Oct ’23CA$3.71
CA$9.15
+146.6%
23.3%CA$11.20CA$5.74CA$3.094
Sep ’23CA$3.22
CA$11.84
+267.7%
30.6%CA$16.87CA$8.50CA$3.103
Aug ’23CA$3.72
CA$11.94
+221.1%
30.5%CA$16.99CA$8.51CA$3.263
Jul ’23CA$3.51
CA$11.16
+218.0%
30.1%CA$16.86CA$8.50CA$3.194
Jun ’23CA$4.27
CA$11.12
+160.5%
30.1%CA$16.82CA$8.71CA$3.434
May ’23CA$5.25
CA$11.66
+122.1%
28.4%CA$17.30CA$8.77CA$3.804
Apr ’23CA$5.47
CA$11.32
+107.0%
34.0%CA$17.95CA$8.60CA$4.174
Mar ’23CA$5.80
CA$11.43
+97.0%
33.8%CA$18.11CA$8.79CA$4.074

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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