Is It Too Late To Consider Orla Mining After Its 127.8% Surge In 2025?

• Wondering if Orla Mining is still worth buying after its big run up, or if the easy money has already been made? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price still lines up with the underlying value.
• The stock has been on a tear, climbing 7.7% over the last week, 8.6% over the last month, and a massive 127.8% year to date, with a 144.5% gain over the past year and 242.0% over three years that has clearly changed how the market sees its risk and growth profile.
• Recent news flow has centred on Orla Mining progressing its key growth projects and strengthening its balance sheet. This has reinforced the story that it is moving from a developer story to a more established producer. At the same time, sector wide optimism in gold and precious metals has added an extra tailwind to sentiment around higher quality names like Orla.
• Despite that big share price move, Orla only scores 2 out of 6 on our basic undervaluation checks. We will dig into how different valuation methods interpret that gap, and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what the stock is really worth.

Orla Mining scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Orla Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to their value in today’s dollars.

For Orla Mining, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $592.2 Million, and analysts, along with Simply Wall St’s extrapolations, see this growing meaningfully over the next decade. Based on analyst inputs and extended projections, free cash flow is expected to rise to roughly $977.5 Million by 2035, with interim years stepping up from around $366.0 Million in 2026.

Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, these projected cash flows are discounted to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of about $61.93 per share. Compared to the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at a 68.7% discount to its estimated fair value. This suggests that the market is pricing in far more risk or weaker growth than the cash flow outlook supports.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Orla Mining is undervalued by 68.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 916 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Orla Mining.

Approach 2: Orla Mining Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Orla Mining, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster earnings growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher, or “richer”, PE multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually command a lower one.

Orla currently trades on a PE of about 89.0x, which is far above both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 20.9x and the broader peer group average of around 19.3x. To move beyond these blunt comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio”, which estimates the PE a stock should trade on after accounting for its earnings growth outlook, risk profile, profitability, industry and market capitalization. For Orla, that Fair Ratio is 25.0x.

Because the Fair Ratio already bakes in higher growth and company specific factors, it is a more tailored benchmark than simple industry or peer averages. With Orla’s actual PE of 89.0x sitting well above the 25.0x Fair Ratio, the multiple suggests the shares are currently priced for very optimistic outcomes.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Orla Mining Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Orla Mining’s story with specific forecasts for its future revenue, earnings, margins and, ultimately, its fair value.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own story behind the numbers, where you translate beliefs like rising gold demand, exploration success or permitting risk into concrete assumptions that power a financial model rather than leaving them as vague opinions.

This creates a clear link from Orla’s business story to a quantified forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare directly with today’s share price to help you decide how the stock aligns with your own view.

Available within the Community page and used by millions of investors, Narratives are easy to set up and are automatically updated when new information such as earnings, news or analyst revisions comes in, so your fair value stays current without manual recalculation.

For example, some Orla Narratives on the platform indicate a fair value closer to CA$15, reflecting more cautious views on execution and gold prices, while more optimistic Narratives indicate fair value in the mid C$20s. This highlights how different perspectives can coexist and helps you see where your own expectations sit on that spectrum.

Do you think there's more to the story for Orla Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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